Thought of titling “What could possibly go wrong with Nifty IT sector” – however, thought of let’s not get into overhype mode. By any means, IT is the hot sector in town. And the valuation of the counter is skyrocketing and investors are busy chasing the momentum.
Last time we tried to evaluate the fair value of metal index using extreme sentimental and running point of control when the metal index stares at 60% draw-down.
Listen, IT is the hottest sector when USDINR is hitting the all-time high. pharmaceutical and information technology are the sectors which earn a big part of their revenues in dollars. Every dollar earned through exports means more money added to the bottom line. Year to Date Nifty IT Sector gained 36.4% and a whopping 700% returns since Feb 2009. But I’m here to tell that “you should always leave a party early when the sector is on steroids”.
Nifty Pharma one the most hated sector in this bull market for a variety of reasons. The number one reason is negative returns since Apr 2015. Till now index had lost a maximum of 42.28% from its peak. Which is very close to the drawdown during the 2008-2009 crisis period. During 2008-2009 economic crisis period Nifty Pharma had made an extreme drawdown of 44% from its peak.
Nifty Smallcap index formed a classical bullish island reversal pattern during last week of March 2018 since then price mean reverted back to 200 Moving Average on the daily charts. Last 15 trading sessions its been hovering around 200MA.
CNX IT Daily Sentiment is negative and down for the consecutive 11 days. Possibly oversold and could bounce back in the shorter term. However last week earning results on the IT stock made the weekly sentiment to turn down. So the overall bias on the CNX IT stocks are wait for the bounce to happen followed by a sell of as the weekly sentiment shows medium term bearishness.
Bank Nifty shows a considerable strength in the current fall of CNX Nifty. Compared to other sectors the relative strength in Bank Nifty is far better. However most of the sectors shows a falling momentum and the relative strength in pharma sector , reality sector and CNX Smallcap is relatively weaker with a strong momentum which signifies highly underperforming sectors.