Most of us invest based on our gut feeling or intuition also called instinctive impulses.Psychological factors such as greed ,fear ,hope and pride or Ego dominate our investing decisions.We sometimes go by tips or advice of some body or jump with news on TV or news papers.Our assumption of certainty of outcome is based on knowledge gained from various sources which we tend to believe or just give a try.This is irrational investing process as certainty of outcome is based on our belief of information where outcome is always binary and not predictable.