October included a market phenomenon that left many economists and commentators scratching their heads. US stocks and oil prices both dropped simultaneously. In fact, it was the worst month for oil in 2 years and the worst month for S&P 500 in over 7 years. What was the “phenomenon”? Well, conventional wisdom says that rising oil prices are bearish for stocks. So, how could falling oil prices also be bearish for stocks?
The great game of Wall Street — where huge amounts of money are at stake every trading day. Many speculators play this game by watching for events outside of the stock market that they believe will “trigger” the next big move in prices.
Every active stock market investor wants to know: Where are prices headed next? Most will scour the financial headlines, tune into financial television and talk to their broker or financial advisor in hopes of finding the answer. But, alas, this quest for market insight often leaves investors just as uncertain as before.
The Elliott wave model often indicates a stock market outlook that’s at odds with the sentiment of the crowd. But, that’s okay. The crowd is usually wrong at major market turns. For example, two years ago on May 9, 2015, the bull market was six years old and the third longest in history. A few days earlier, CNN Money said: As the bull market gets longer and longer, investors are getting jittery.
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Close to ninety percent of all traders lose money. The remaining ten percent somehow manage to either break even or even turn a profit — and more importantly, do it consistently. How do they do that?
In the closing days of November, the Daily Sentiment Index registered a ten-day average of just 9.1% gold bulls. That was only the third time in the sentiment gauge’s 30-year history that such a low bullish reading was recorded.
Last week’s shocking spike in crude oil prices is +12% and counting, the biggest one-week gain in five years. Media stories blame one culprit: the November 30 OPEC agreement to cut production.
Bullish sentiment among silver traders recently fell to 8 percent, the lowest reading since mid-2015. So, sentiment is in the right place for the next big leg in the price pattern.