KLintra V5 – Linear Regression-Based Volatility Trading System – Nifty Hourly

What is KLintra V5?

Klintra V5 is a trend-following system based on Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average + Linear regression-based volatility channel with adaptive parameters based on four different volatile seasons.

The primary objective of the KLintra V5 trend following system is to capture the positional trends and bringing consistency in return and optimal stop loss from the Klintra V5 band itself thereby maximizing the overall gain of the portfolio.

What is a Trend Following System?

According to Wikipedia, Trend following or trend trading is a trading strategy according to which one should buy an asset when its price trend goes up, and sell when its trend goes down, expecting price movements to continue.

Traders who employ a trend-following strategy do not aim to forecast or predict specific price levels; they simply jump on the trend (when they perceived that a trend has been established with their own peculiar reasons or rules) and ride it.

Backtesting Performance

In order to test the system parameters following parameters are used

ParametersValue
Trading InstrumentNifty Futures
Backtesting TimeframeHourly timeframe (Continous Data)
Backtest LengthJan 2011 – Jul 2021
Strategy TypeVolatility based Trend Following (Positional)
Position Size2 Lakhs (Max Position Value)
Slippage + Commissions0.02%
Trading CapitalRS 4,00,000
Current Trading Margin as of 6th Aug 2021Rs 1,64,432/Lot or 18.23% NRML Margin
Preferred Execution TypeEntry Limit Order and Exit Market Order
Fixed Stoploss Nil
Fixed Target5.0%
Signals in Futures and Execution in OptionsYes Possible
Which Option Strike to Select4 Strike ITM (Ensure Sufficient Liquidity is available)

Rough Theoretical Brokerage Charges involved in a typical Buy and Sell Transaction with Bank Nifty at 16,000 levels

ParametersValue
Total Turnover Rs 1600000 (Buy Side + Sell Side)
BrokerageRs 40
STT totalRs 80
Exchange txn chargeRs 32
Clearing chargeRS 0
GSTRs 12.96
SEBI chargesRs 0.84
Stamp dutyRS 16
Total ChargesRs 182.56 (0.011%)
Points to breakeven3.65 points

Backtesting Results

Key Backtesting Performance Metrics

Key Performance MetricsValue
Sharp Ratio0.6
Max System Drawdown2.93L/lot (unhedged risk)
Calmar Ratio (CAR/MDD)0.42
Recovery Factor4.68
Profit Factor1.29
Payoff Ratio1.77
Risk-Reward Ratio0.95

Trading Parameters

ParametersValues
ATR100
len125
len2100
len380
len4195

Equity Curve

Drawdown Curve (Absolute Drawdown in rupee terms)

Profit Table (Absolute PNL) in thousands