Nifty FMCG index formed a classical bearish island reversal pattern during the month of July 2017 since then it is drastically under-performing nifty and moving in a sideways phase, tightly compressed for the last 5 trading months.
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Since last two years Gold is currently trading in a very broader range 200 point range (1150-1350 on weekly timeframe). Trading sentiment for this week turned to positive which indicates bullish medium term bias. On the Daily Scale Gold is trading in a very tight range between 1265-1285 range and sentiment turned positive on the daily scale as well.
Nifty PE ratio hovering above 26 levels for the the past 1-month. Monthly trading sentiment is continuing positive and at the extreme. Yearly profile shows a trending market with poor structure, which indicates short term is still bullish however the participation is getting more and more emotional in buying. Lack of symmetrical structure often suggests how emotional/patriotic long term players are!
Last two days Nifty futures made a down swing of approximately 200 points (from 10530 to 10330 levels). Interestingly on the weekly charts nifty had made a outside bar with a low confidence breakout. It looked below the previous week low 10350 and failed to accept below previous week low on EOD basis.
Nifty found short term resistance around 10500 zone and currently in the phase of short term correction. Trading sentiment and profile sentiment both turned to negative mode which brings more downside pressure for nifty in the very near term. On the downside 10350 and 10248 are the two major focus levels to watch in the very short term.
Nifty done one more All time high in the start of the November series. Should have raised the eyebrows of every equity derivative trader. From the Daily trading sentiment perspective Nifty is holding the positive sentiment for the last 6 trading sessions. Trading Excitement is at the extreme for this series.
Nifty is trading around All time high. October Futures is more of one-sided movement with an approximate swing of 500+ points swing. The trading sentiment is holding positive across the timeframes (Daily, Weekly, Monthly). No weakness yet from the market internals perspective. Trading Positional Shorts could be still not a profitable one unless you understand the inventory conditions of the market participants.
Nifty Future is trading very close to the all time high with mixed trading sentiments from market profile and indicator which could eventually lead into a sideways to uptrend phenomenon. Market internals are increasingly holding positive and put writers are aggressively killing the option premium at 9800PE, 9900PE, 10000PE, 10100PE. Diwali’s emotional trading is overcome by the Monday’s price action.
Bank Nifty Futures is under performing Nifty futures since the start of the Oct 2017 Series. Bank Nifty made a month-to-date gain of 1.3% vs Nifty Futures month-to-date gain of 4.6%. Bank Nifty indicator Sentiment and profile sentiment turned negative recently.
Inventory adjustment occurs especially when the market participants goes too long or too short. Short term Inventory Adjustment will be realized in the market either in the form of short covering or long liquidation breaks. Understanding the Long Term, Short Term, Day timeframe inventory conditions will give the true edge from both the trader/investor perspective.
Nifty Futures is trading in the new territory and also hits all time high on friday trading session. This time weekly sentiment turned positive and interestingly market internals are holding positive and put writers are aggressively killing the option premium at 9800PE, 9900PE, 10000PE, 10100PE. None of the call writers are aggressive for this series despite the global events like North Korea Threat, China downgrade and local events like surgical strike, Fitch downgrading India’s growth forecast to 6.9 per cent.