Nifty September series is so far continuing its sideways expiry series with again raising North Korea tension as US President Mr Donald Trump announces executive order targeting North Korea’s trade and banking activities, calls for denuclearization. Volatility raised intraday to 10%. Trading Sentiment continue to be negative for the fourth day. Chinese Downgrade and North Korean tension weigh Asian markets on friday trading session.
Nifty September futures currently trading around its previous high on 18th Sep 2017 trading. Post making all time high marginally Nifty September contract started trading sideways during Monday trading session. Short covering rally was witnessed in the first hour of trade. Trading Sentiment is holding bullish and the expiry range had shifted higher to 10053-10308.
Nifty is trading very close to all time high levels which is perfectly normal for a bull market sentiment and nothing much changed from the last view on exponential unfaded gaps in Nifty Futures. But then historical charts shows increased risk on long holdings as Nifty Futures have 9 unfaded gaps in 2017 alone and 11 unfaded gaps since 2016 which indicates that new buyers are coming up at every gap up scenarios and every pullbacks. Street is now anticipating all time high as 10,000 Psychological levels seems to be sustained.
USDJPY tested April 2017 low on fears that Pyongyang (North Korea) would launch another missile test over the weekend, which had added to last Friday’s USDJPY selloff. Last friday Yen had made a low around 107.32 followed by a strong pullback on monday leaving a strong tail on the bar chart again. Its the second time the pattern is repeating on north korea fears with a short term trade setup.
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Nifty Expiry range continues to be in a tighter range for this series between 9766 – 10126. Put writers continue to be active at 9700, 9800, 9900 series and the overall crowd options intelligence for this series holding positive since the start of the series. 9900 option strike PCR at 1.95 and 10000 strike PCR at 0.45 which is kept the market in a compressed 100 points range for the last week.
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Nifty futures inching up with the positive sentiment despite the global tensions prevailed. Sep 2017 expiry series is likely to be interesting as markets are one timeframing on the monthly charts and so far unidirectional. Weekly Charts are balancing in a range. And daily charts got out of the resistance zone 9940-9960 levels which indicates that short term trend is up.
Japan’s currency USDJPY, strengthened as North Korean launched a missile that crossed over Japan on 29th Aug 2017. Yen had made a low around 108.27 and made a 2-month low followed by a strong intraday pullback leaving a strong tail on the bar chart. Trading sentiment was extremely negative and the bias still holds negative. However a follow through rally is anticipated in USDJPY and has the probability to establish a short/medium term trend reversal.
Nifty futures on the daily charts continues it positive sentiment with one timeframing visible on the daily timeframe. However trading range was tighter due to the prevailing low volatility despite increasing global tensions. In the near term 9830 continues to be the short term support. Price acceptance below 9830 will change the current sentiment to negative.
Nifty futures made a inside bar on the weekly timeframe despite continuing global tensions, global market corrections, FII selling in index futures and cash segments and local events like Mr.Vishal sikka resignation from INFY which is a strong indication that sellers are not aggressive yet compare to the aggressive buyers.
Crude Oil is trading in a very tight range. Very short term trading sentiment turns positive and trend line resistance comes around 49.2 reference where more crowded stops are visible in that reference point. And few more stops are visible around 50.2 zone.