Rajandran R Telecom Engineer turned Full-time Derivative Trader. Mostly Trading Nifty, Banknifty, USDINR and High Liquid Stock Derivatives. Trading the Markets Since 2006 onwards. Using Market Profile and Orderflow for more than a decade. Designed and published 100+ open source trading systems on various trading tools. Strongly believe that market understanding and robust trading frameworks are the key to the trading success. Writing about Markets, Trading System Design, Market Sentiment, Trading Softwares & Trading Nuances since 2007 onwards. Author of Marketcalls.in)

Sensex and the History

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Here is an interesting information about the Historical Sensex Data extracted from icicidirect.com By Vivek Patil, India's foremost expert in Elliot Wave Analysis.

As per 8-year cycle, we saw three bear phases unfolding during the life-time of the Sensex so far. These three phases are as follows :

1. 1992 : Index dropped 57% from 4546 (Apr’92) to 1980 (Mar’93).
2. 2000 : Index dropped 58% from 6150 (Feb’00) to 2595 (Sep’01).
3. 2008 : Index dropped 63% from 21206 (Jan’08) to 7697 (Oct’08) [so far].

A study of these three bear phases throws up an interesting list of similar parameters :

1. Sensex lost about 60%.
2. It took 13 to 16 months to achieve lowest point of the phase.
3. There were 4 to 5 sell-offs.
4. There was a particular group of stocks that performed at the tops, “Old Economy” during ‘1992, “New Economy” during ‘2000 and “Property” during ‘2008.
5. Cycle heroes faced difficult times for 5-10 years
6. Stock market Scam.
7. Scam related to cycle performing sector, “old economy” during ‘1992, “new economy” during ‘2000 and “property” during ‘2008.
8. The scam-tainted bull was taken to jail, Harshad, Ketan, Raju.
9. The phase ended with a higher bottom higher top with faster retracement of the last falling segment.
10. The lowest level of the phase was hit after a catastrophic event unfolded, “Bombay Bomb Blast”, “WTC collapse”, ????.

Of this, the last parameter is still awaited to get unfolded. Students of Technical Analysis may note that “history repeats” is one of the three basic pillars of Technical Analysis.

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Rajandran R Telecom Engineer turned Full-time Derivative Trader. Mostly Trading Nifty, Banknifty, USDINR and High Liquid Stock Derivatives. Trading the Markets Since 2006 onwards. Using Market Profile and Orderflow for more than a decade. Designed and published 100+ open source trading systems on various trading tools. Strongly believe that market understanding and robust trading frameworks are the key to the trading success. Writing about Markets, Trading System Design, Market Sentiment, Trading Softwares & Trading Nuances since 2007 onwards. Author of Marketcalls.in)

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