Rajandran R Telecom Engineer turned Full-time Derivative Trader. Mostly Trading Nifty, Banknifty, USDINR and High Liquid Stock Derivatives. Trading the Markets Since 2006 onwards. Using Market Profile and Orderflow for more than a decade. Designed and published 100+ open source trading systems on various trading tools. Strongly believe that market understanding and robust trading frameworks are the key to the trading success. Writing about Markets, Trading System Design, Market Sentiment, Trading Softwares & Trading Nuances since 2007 onwards. Author of Marketcalls.in)

The Big Picture behind Nifty

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Lets have a look about the Big Picture behind Nifty. Charts shown here is the 
10 Year – Yearly Chart for Nifty with 5 Simple EMA Indicator. Applying our 5 EMA
rule (Buy – if cadle closes above 5 EMA and Sell if candle closes below 5 EMA).
We got a buy signal in Nifty during 2003 around 2000 levels in nifty and a sell signal
during 2008.
Iam not likely to present any bearish scenario at this stage. But just to produce
my long term view on markets based on my simple 5 EMA. Presently the 2009's Yearly
resistance is near 3515 as per 5 EMA rule. So there are huge possibilites that we 
may end this year i.e 31st Dec 2009 Below 5 EMA… i.e 3515. Because market gives
a sell signal during 2008 when it dips below 3800 levels during OCT 2008… ie below 5EMA. 
This might be one of the reason why we are facing much resistance near 3515 levels.
Also even a raise above 3515 is subject to questioned….Will it sustain above 3515 levels. Another Major resistance upside lies near 3775 which is nothing but the 200 Week Simple Moving Average. So 3515 and 3775 are the key levels for the market
for the year 2009. Its my self belief that 3775 wont be crossed until the end of the
year 2009 and even sustainability above 3515 will be Possible only for a shorter duration of days. And more possibly 31'st Dec 2009 should likely to close below 3515 levels.
Still 8 more months remaining for the Year 2009 to End and I prefer to be a short term investor in Heavily Beaten down Stocks for the year of 2009 rather than investing in fat stocks those trades above 200 day MA and 200 Week MA for best short term returns.
[b]Disclaimer : All my decision's are based on Simple 5 EMA rule as explained above[/b]
Rajandran R Telecom Engineer turned Full-time Derivative Trader. Mostly Trading Nifty, Banknifty, USDINR and High Liquid Stock Derivatives. Trading the Markets Since 2006 onwards. Using Market Profile and Orderflow for more than a decade. Designed and published 100+ open source trading systems on various trading tools. Strongly believe that market understanding and robust trading frameworks are the key to the trading success. Writing about Markets, Trading System Design, Market Sentiment, Trading Softwares & Trading Nuances since 2007 onwards. Author of Marketcalls.in)

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4 Replies to “The Big Picture behind Nifty”

  1. Hi,Its a nice post. Is there anything changed by the past 8months apart from all hidden truths came into picture which destroyed trillions of money? Now we can see what is speculation as art by this rally. One may argue with Fundamentals or Technicals but price-economy conditions favor bear market and in a short term we may see 3.7-3.8 as top and may be elections will say take rest to our bulls for a while.I would save this post and I also feel sure that we will remain or worse than current situation before the world economy bottoms out and comes out with real force.If you could post your suggestions for stock sectors if not stock specific which we could see for short term gains, it would we more thankful.Cheers,Selva

  2. dear rajandran,plz could u post some scrips which r possibl long term buys,i.e,the beaten down stocks for 2009.it wud b really helpful.thnxn regds rashmi

  3. Hi Selva,Thanks for following me. Market would be very tricky if falls below 3250 levels before elections…. and make rise after election towards 3750 levels…. And this kind of this move is very trick to trap investors at higher levelsLooks markets are good after election in shorter duration@Rashmi and SelvaStocks will be reviewed here at appropriate timein my blog when there is enough oppurtunity to invest in the market.

  4. DEAR RAJENDRAN,THANKS FOR THE EXCELLENT POSTS.MADE GOOD PROFIT IN ABAN .CARRY ON THE GOOD WORK.WILL LOOK AT ADLABS NOWTHANKS AGAIN

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