After Dr.Raguram Rajan’s(RBI Governer) announcement that he will not continue in office for the second term, stock markets on Monday reacted with gap down and recovered on relief of BRexit fears. However from the currency front USDINR ended at 67.6 with strong momentum . EOD sentiment is holding positive and also the coral trend indicator turns greens indicating that a possible uptrend from here on.
Interesting Divergence behavior in USDINR Daily charts while trying to use Fisher Transform indicator by Ehlers. Almost every divergence as shown in the above charts extended any where between 28-34 days. Divergence generally occurs when an indicator and the price of an asset are heading in opposite directions. Current positive divergence is running on for last 32 days i.e USDINR rate is slowing and moving down however fisher indicator is turning upwards.
Here is a simple example from Mr Jayant Manglik (Religare Online) explaining how the impact of Change in Comex Gold Price impact MCX Gold (if USDINR rates are assumed to be constant. He also discuss how USDINR movement affects MCX Gold rates keeping Comex Gold rates as constant. Useful video must for the begineers to understand the dynamics of the commodity market.
The recent strengthening of the USDINR currency is due to the continuous buying of FII’s for the past 15 days into India Equity Market. Interestingly FII’s are the net buyers for the past 4 months and this march so far they had invested close to Rs 6,034.50 crore into the debt segment. And so USDINR Futures (MCX-SX) currently looks oversold on the hourly charts.