Nifty futures made a inside bar on the weekly timeframe despite continuing global tensions, global market corrections, FII selling in index futures and cash segments and local events like Mr.Vishal sikka resignation from INFY which is a strong indication that sellers are not aggressive yet compare to the aggressive buyers.
Nifty Futures on the weekly timeframe had lost a weight of -3.7%. Trading sentiment continues to be down across all the timeframes. Markets are continuously falling on global tensions as long term trading activity is greatly missing from the markets. Pullbacks are possible if the global tension eases out. Nifty futures move above 9750-9763 band in the very short term could bring some momentum on the upper side.
Nifty likely to open gap up today around 9940 levels which is perfectly normal for a bull market sentiment. But then historical charts shows increased risk on long holdings as Nifty Futures have 10 more unfaded gaps in 2017 alone which indicates that new buyers are coming up at every gap up scenarios and every pullbacks. Street is now anticipating 10,000 the psychological 5-Digit magical figure.
Video log on how to prepare for 12th June 2017 Nifty future trading. Here is the quick summary of what is discussed in the video. From the Top down analysis monthly timeframe is up and trending higher not much weakness seen, weekly timeframe is up (sentiment is up as well) and also week range is very thin 85point range. However daly timeframe is in balancing mode for last 6 trading sessions as the volatility in the markets remains low.
Nifty and Nifty Auto index is showing signs of possible medium term trend exhaustion on the weekly timeframe. Also recent surge in global markets volatility is a concern in the medium term. In the last three trading sessions 9500 remains the psychological reference and lot many stops are hunted above and below the reference and now price sustaining below the previous week high 9450 remains the key for sustained weakness in the upcoming trading sessions.
Nifty Futures closed at all time high on Thursdays trading session. However still the overall market is in short term balance between 9300-9380 range since 26th Apr 2017 and consolidating for the last 6 trading sessions. Nothing much changed from the last top down analysis on nifty futures. Volatility in the market remains muted and banknifty is outperforming nifty future heavily in the past few trading sessions.
Nifty Futures on the monthly charts one timeframing for the last 5 trading months with all time high at 9366. Intermediate trend is up as well with less rotation seen so far on the weekly timeframe. On the Daily Charts markets are moving in a layered consolidation with indicates a weak market structure and the volatility for the Indian Market stood at 11.44 as on 2nd May. Increasing volatility is the only key for better trading opportunities in the upcoming trading sessions.
After Uttar Pradesh and Uttarkand Election results, street expectations are getting extremely positive as majority of the traders and investors community hoping markets set to gap up after BJP’s landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh. Also Data released by the CSO last friday showed – industrial production (IIP) rose 2.7% in January after contracting by 0.4% in December which adds more fuel to the extreme positive sentiment. Lets do the top down analysis to understand the current state of the market.
On the daily timeframe consolidation is seen for the last 7 trading sessions. Both Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures are showing an intraday selloff in the first half of the session followed by second half of intraday recovery from the bottom for the last 7 consecutive trading sessions. And moreover Nifty futures is currently at the visual resistance zone @ 8835. so far Nifty Futures is struggling to close above this visual reference level.
Nifty and Bank Nifty Daily Charts with Twiggs money flow indicator (Smoothed version) indcates that a possible turn around from the bottom and shorter term bullishness could continue despite slowdown in IIP numbers. India’s industrial released post friday trading indicates that output fell the steepest in 3 months by 1.9% in October from 0.7% expansion in September. If any negative jerks in the market due to those news factors could last only for a very short duration.
As a trader worst thing one can do is anticipating trend all the time. When a trader anticipates a trend but rather market does a sideways action if often frustrates a trader and often leads to take wrong decisions throughout the sideways phase. This week lets analyze the weekly sentimental data points from Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.