Nifty Futures is trading in the new territory and also hits all time high on friday trading session. This time weekly sentiment turned positive and interestingly market internals are holding positive and put writers are aggressively killing the option premium at 9800PE, 9900PE, 10000PE, 10100PE. None of the call writers are aggressive for this series despite the global events like North Korea Threat, China downgrade and local events like surgical strike, Fitch downgrading India’s growth forecast to 6.9 per cent.
Nifty Futures had done a inventory adjustment in a steep slope on last Wednesday trading. It is more of short sellers day where an emotional short selling is witnessed in the second half of the session. Indicator sentiment remains positive for the 7th day. Nifty Futures on the Daily chart is trading above 50 day moving average 9960.
Nifty Futures made a descent recovery from the 9700 reference level. Nifty Futures on the Daily chart is trading below 50 day moving average 9960. However from the short term perspective indicator sentiment continues to be on the positive side with price action forming consecutive higher high for the last 4 consecutive trading sessions since the surgical strike day.
Nifty managed to find support around 9700 zone and indicator sentiment turned positive on last friday evening. However profile sentiment manages to be negative as long as the price stays below 9814. Price accepting above 9814 could bring short some bullish bias back into the markets until then a sideways action between 9700-9814 is expected.
Two more days left for September expiry and volatility started crashing as India VIX is down 3% for the day. On the monthly scale nifty futures is down by -0.6%. Indicator Sentiment continues to be negative for the 6th consecutive trading session. And Profile sentiment continues its bearishness for the 4th consecutive session. Despite all the weakness from indicator and profile based sentiment still market internals remains bullish.
Nifty September series is so far continuing its sideways expiry series with again raising North Korea tension as US President Mr Donald Trump announces executive order targeting North Korea’s trade and banking activities, calls for denuclearization. Volatility raised intraday to 10%. Trading Sentiment continue to be negative for the fourth day. Chinese Downgrade and North Korean tension weigh Asian markets on friday trading session.
Nifty September futures currently trading around its previous high on 18th Sep 2017 trading. Post making all time high marginally Nifty September contract started trading sideways during Monday trading session. Short covering rally was witnessed in the first hour of trade. Trading Sentiment is holding bullish and the expiry range had shifted higher to 10053-10308.
Nifty is trading very close to all time high levels which is perfectly normal for a bull market sentiment and nothing much changed from the last view on exponential unfaded gaps in Nifty Futures. But then historical charts shows increased risk on long holdings as Nifty Futures have 9 unfaded gaps in 2017 alone and 11 unfaded gaps since 2016 which indicates that new buyers are coming up at every gap up scenarios and every pullbacks. Street is now anticipating all time high as 10,000 Psychological levels seems to be sustained.
Nifty Expiry range continues to be in a tighter range for this series between 9766 – 10126. Put writers continue to be active at 9700, 9800, 9900 series and the overall crowd options intelligence for this series holding positive since the start of the series. 9900 option strike PCR at 1.95 and 10000 strike PCR at 0.45 which is kept the market in a compressed 100 points range for the last week.
Nifty futures inching up with the positive sentiment despite the global tensions prevailed. Sep 2017 expiry series is likely to be interesting as markets are one timeframing on the monthly charts and so far unidirectional. Weekly Charts are balancing in a range. And daily charts got out of the resistance zone 9940-9960 levels which indicates that short term trend is up.
Nifty futures on the daily charts continues it positive sentiment with one timeframing visible on the daily timeframe. However trading range was tighter due to the prevailing low volatility despite increasing global tensions. In the near term 9830 continues to be the short term support. Price acceptance below 9830 will change the current sentiment to negative.
Nifty futures made a inside bar on the weekly timeframe despite continuing global tensions, global market corrections, FII selling in index futures and cash segments and local events like Mr.Vishal sikka resignation from INFY which is a strong indication that sellers are not aggressive yet compare to the aggressive buyers.