Fridays Price action ended with a massive short covering followed by fresh money buying with trading sentiment switches to positive. Open Interest in Nifty Futures is up by 5.19% showing incoming fresh money supply towards the longs. Multiple Price rejections witnessed at 10343 ( strong ORR levels ) on daily timeframe. And moreover price manage to close above previous month low and also above the psychological reference 10500.
When markets are surrounded with rumors and fake hoaxes its always good to take a bird eye view to understand the trading competition in a better way. From the EOD charts Strong ORR 10343 levels acting as a strong demand zone on EOD closing basis. Responsive buying came whenever price dipped below 10340 levels and managed to close above/around 10340 levels.
Nifty Futures opened within the range on Monday and managed to break Fridays low in the first 30min of trading and tested 10300 levels post the mid noon. Post testing below 10300 managed to recovered towards the Developing Point of Control. Trading sentiment is negative and value formed lower for the day relative to Fridays trading session. PSU Bank scam sentiment weigh the day, puts more downside pressure on the price.
Just 4 more trading days left for the February expiry series to come to an end. So far this expiry is brutal to the small cap and midcap investors. Lots of dumb longs got flushed out of the system and some more still pending to get flushed out. Media Channels are fear mongering on banking scams. If your mind is biased it is better to cleanse with top down approach.
Yet another high volatile day in the market with two sided auctions. Price opened above previous day spike and went testing the Thursdays failed auction reference level 10586. Later on price traded in a compressed ontimeframe against the IB direction more of day timeframe players participation with stops built at day high.
Nifty Futures opened within the range on Wednesday Morning followed a breakout towards previous day high in the first 30min of trading. Post breakout, compressed two way auction continued throughout mid of the day, filled with intraday choppiness. Trading confidence was relatively less. Value remains higher throughout the day though price plunged in the last 30 minute of trading and spike rules applies on thursday trading session. Day also ended with Failed Auction at day high – 10587
Nifty Futures opened gap up on Monday Morning followed by two way auction continued throughout the day filled with intraday choppiness. Trading confidence was relatively less as the opening auction turned out to be open auction outside the range. Value remains higher throughout the day price manage to sustain above 10480 levels.
It is always good to start a week with top down analysis to gauge the overall market participation mood. On the monthly bar chart (Long Term Auction) Nifty Futures is balancing. Last week attempt to breakout of previous month low 10436.5 failed. On the weekly bar (Intermediate Term Auction) Nifty futures is clearly down and also trading below the major psychological reference 10500 levels. On the Daily bar (Short term Auction) Nifty futures is trending down with in a volatile environment.
The context had nothing much changed from the last write up except the market moved from a 100 point range to 200 point range.Volatility is much improved for this week. Nifty Futures attempted a fresh all time high and closed higher with euphoric global market optimism.
Last 5 trading days Nifty Futures is moving in a 100 point range. Volatility was greatly muted. On Wednesdays trading Nifty Futures attempted a fresh all time high before ending up with emotional liquidation in the second half of the session. Late Rallies and Late Liquidation are the game being played in the last couple of days. We are nearing the year end and just two more trading days left for this year 2017.
It was a crazy volatile week. Nifty Futures done a descent recovery from the attempted downtrend twice in Dec 2017. Every Major 300+ points corrections got bought in December expiry so far. Lets understand the state of the market to get a fresh short term outlook.
Markets are naturally designed to be rough & tough. However, not designed for linear logical thinking. Todays Trading session in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures is clear example for how complex information we are dealing with.