Video log on how to prepare for 12th June 2017 Nifty future trading. Here is the quick summary of what is discussed in the video. From the Top down analysis monthly timeframe is up and trending higher not much weakness seen, weekly timeframe is up (sentiment is up as well) and also week range is very thin 85point range. However daly timeframe is in balancing mode for last 6 trading sessions as the volatility in the markets remains low.
Nifty and Nifty Auto index is showing signs of possible medium term trend exhaustion on the weekly timeframe. Also recent surge in global markets volatility is a concern in the medium term. In the last three trading sessions 9500 remains the psychological reference and lot many stops are hunted above and below the reference and now price sustaining below the previous week high 9450 remains the key for sustained weakness in the upcoming trading sessions.
Nifty Futures closed at all time high on Thursdays trading session. However still the overall market is in short term balance between 9300-9380 range since 26th Apr 2017 and consolidating for the last 6 trading sessions. Nothing much changed from the last top down analysis on nifty futures. Volatility in the market remains muted and banknifty is outperforming nifty future heavily in the past few trading sessions.
Nifty Futures on the monthly charts one timeframing for the last 5 trading months with all time high at 9366. Intermediate trend is up as well with less rotation seen so far on the weekly timeframe. On the Daily Charts markets are moving in a layered consolidation with indicates a weak market structure and the volatility for the Indian Market stood at 11.44 as on 2nd May. Increasing volatility is the only key for better trading opportunities in the upcoming trading sessions.
After Uttar Pradesh and Uttarkand Election results, street expectations are getting extremely positive as majority of the traders and investors community hoping markets set to gap up after BJP’s landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh. Also Data released by the CSO last friday showed – industrial production (IIP) rose 2.7% in January after contracting by 0.4% in December which adds more fuel to the extreme positive sentiment. Lets do the top down analysis to understand the current state of the market.
On the daily timeframe consolidation is seen for the last 7 trading sessions. Both Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures are showing an intraday selloff in the first half of the session followed by second half of intraday recovery from the bottom for the last 7 consecutive trading sessions. And moreover Nifty futures is currently at the visual resistance zone @ 8835. so far Nifty Futures is struggling to close above this visual reference level.
Nifty and Bank Nifty Daily Charts with Twiggs money flow indicator (Smoothed version) indcates that a possible turn around from the bottom and shorter term bullishness could continue despite slowdown in IIP numbers. India’s industrial released post friday trading indicates that output fell the steepest in 3 months by 1.9% in October from 0.7% expansion in September. If any negative jerks in the market due to those news factors could last only for a very short duration.
As a trader worst thing one can do is anticipating trend all the time. When a trader anticipates a trend but rather market does a sideways action if often frustrates a trader and often leads to take wrong decisions throughout the sideways phase. This week lets analyze the weekly sentimental data points from Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.
Nifty Futures opened gap down and made a island reversal pattern on Monday. Though it is a classical bearish pattern,markets generally reacts against the classical technique most of the time. Trading Sentiment is negative and after the Monday’s impact on markets expectation on the psychological figure 9000 reduced.
In the last week we had seen aggressive short covering from shorter timeframe sellers followed by lack of momentum post the breakout of 8800 zone. In the last three days again we started making fresh three day consolidation in the range 8800-8860 zone indicating that trend is getting tired and whomever trading this zone is most likely dominated by shorter timeframe buyers