Yet another 3 day balancing and slowly moving unproductive days for a positional trader in Nifty futures as it trades in 10360-10420 range for the last 3 trading sessions. Interestingly stops again got built around 10420 post todays panic intraday drop towards 10360 levels.
Last three days of markets would have drained the productivity of any positional trader in Nifty Futures as the markets rolls in a tight compressed fashion in a narrow 80 point range. Price finds resistance around 10390-10400 levels where most of the short term players are prone to keep their stop levels. Thursdays trading session shows a mid-day emotional sell-off followed by sharp recovery and closed flat for the trading session.
Nifty PE ratio hovering above 26 levels for the the past 1-month. Monthly trading sentiment is continuing positive and at the extreme. Yearly profile shows a trending market with poor structure, which indicates short term is still bullish however the participation is getting more and more emotional in buying. Lack of symmetrical structure often suggests how emotional/patriotic long term players are!
Last two days Nifty futures made a down swing of approximately 200 points (from 10530 to 10330 levels). Interestingly on the weekly charts nifty had made a outside bar with a low confidence breakout. It looked below the previous week low 10350 and failed to accept below previous week low on EOD basis.
Nifty found short term resistance around 10500 zone and currently in the phase of short term correction. Trading sentiment and profile sentiment both turned to negative mode which brings more downside pressure for nifty in the very near term. On the downside 10350 and 10248 are the two major focus levels to watch in the very short term.
Nifty done one more All time high in the start of the November series. Should have raised the eyebrows of every equity derivative trader. From the Daily trading sentiment perspective Nifty is holding the positive sentiment for the last 6 trading sessions. Trading Excitement is at the extreme for this series.
Nifty Future is trading very close to the all time high with mixed trading sentiments from market profile and indicator which could eventually lead into a sideways to uptrend phenomenon. Market internals are increasingly holding positive and put writers are aggressively killing the option premium at 9800PE, 9900PE, 10000PE, 10100PE. Diwali’s emotional trading is overcome by the Monday’s price action.
Nifty Futures is trading in the new territory and also hits all time high on friday trading session. This time weekly sentiment turned positive and interestingly market internals are holding positive and put writers are aggressively killing the option premium at 9800PE, 9900PE, 10000PE, 10100PE. None of the call writers are aggressive for this series despite the global events like North Korea Threat, China downgrade and local events like surgical strike, Fitch downgrading India’s growth forecast to 6.9 per cent.
Nifty Futures had done a inventory adjustment in a steep slope on last Wednesday trading. It is more of short sellers day where an emotional short selling is witnessed in the second half of the session. Indicator sentiment remains positive for the 7th day. Nifty Futures on the Daily chart is trading above 50 day moving average 9960.
Nifty Futures made a descent recovery from the 9700 reference level. Nifty Futures on the Daily chart is trading below 50 day moving average 9960. However from the short term perspective indicator sentiment continues to be on the positive side with price action forming consecutive higher high for the last 4 consecutive trading sessions since the surgical strike day.
Nifty managed to find support around 9700 zone and indicator sentiment turned positive on last friday evening. However profile sentiment manages to be negative as long as the price stays below 9814. Price accepting above 9814 could bring short some bullish bias back into the markets until then a sideways action between 9700-9814 is expected.
Two more days left for September expiry and volatility started crashing as India VIX is down 3% for the day. On the monthly scale nifty futures is down by -0.6%. Indicator Sentiment continues to be negative for the 6th consecutive trading session. And Profile sentiment continues its bearishness for the 4th consecutive session. Despite all the weakness from indicator and profile based sentiment still market internals remains bullish.