On Mondays trading session price is able to find a new higher equilibrium compare to the Fridays session as value is created higher and market sentiment too revived to positive mode despite Fridays negative close. Entire June trading session is so far in a compressed 100 point trading range between 9600-9700.
Nifty had done a “W” shaped price pattern so far during Nov 2016 to till date which is very much visual from the charts. Currently price is trading around the Intermediate resistance zone 8315 levels as Sentimental RSI is currently at the extreme. Previous Top Down Analysis indicates that still price is showing a consolidation pattern in both Daily and Weekly Charts.
Top Down Approach provides us the macro visual perspective of the market participation. We will start with monthly charts to understand the long term participation, weekly charts to understand the intermediate term players and the daily charts to understand how the shorter timeframe players are behaving.
What a volatility, Nifty is making 100 points up and 100 points down move just like that. Nifty closed the session on friday at 8261.20 after making the intraday high of 8296. week ahead starting from 18th May 2015 nifty future will face hurdle at 8350 once sustain above this level 8495 will be next resistance for the week and there after 8550. On downside the support area is 8080-8020 below which 7800-7700 will be next.
Willam VIX FIX study has been applied over the daily and weekly charts of Nifty futures. And VIX FIX turning down from the peak indicate a possible bottom is already in place. On the weekly charts Nifty futures has to maintain 5197 Weekly 5EMA low as support on weekly basis. And the 5EMA High weekely levels are at 8483.
Nifty future made the low of 8280.90 and closed the week at 8318.80, The short-term and medium term trends are down and nifty is just moving around its 200 day moving average. From the daily charts above we can clearly see a head and shoulder formation and which is very clear in breaking its neckline.
Trading with no plan can be devastating for your capital as well as emotions. Nifty future has been steadily moving upwards from last few trading sessions. We have seen a decent recover already after march 2015 FNO expiry.Nifty future closed the week at 8811.45 this is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the recent bottom.
Nifty future opened the week at 8474.75 and made the high of 8645.55 and closed at the higher end of the range at 8633.10. The week was the shortest as there were only three trading days. After been range bound on Wednesday morning trading session the bulls picked up momentum in second half and nifty future moved out of the hourly trading range for the day and closed higher.
As shared in our previous weekly report nifty future break down after the channel was broken and trend continued in favor of bears. The march series has been what the most bears had been waiting from so many months. A complete correction with added volume and deeper cuts with no respite for bulls at any levels. A cut of 358 points on spot was witnessed in March FnO Expiry week.
We have witnessed three outside bearish reversal bars in march month every week, Even After a gap up opening on any global positive news or local triggers market has not been able to hold the gains or reverse the trend and has declined sharply in favor of the bears. On the broad range from chart above one can clearly see the trading range for nifty future since january 2015 till date.