Last week trading session ,Bank Nifty futures attracted lot many short term sellers came to compete in the market. Trading behavior was in such a way that most of the traders we dealt with them are mechanical/emotional/price based short term sellers. Especially the emotional sellers shown post the RBI policy announcement are possibly the price based sellers initiated trades based on price breaking down below the previous week low or price testing 50 day moving average on the daily timeframe.
Bank Nifty Futures consecutively making lower lows for the last 5 trading session on the daily charts. Price breaks the previous week low and in the last 1 hour of the trading session manage to close above friday low (Previous Week Low as well). Trading Sentiment continues to be negative as long as price holds below 25242 levels. Mondays price attempt closed the 1st Nov Gap.
Yet another 3 day balancing and slowly moving unproductive days for a positional trader in Nifty futures as it trades in 10360-10420 range for the last 3 trading sessions. Interestingly stops again got built around 10420 post todays panic intraday drop towards 10360 levels.
Last two days Nifty futures made a down swing of approximately 200 points (from 10530 to 10330 levels). Interestingly on the weekly charts nifty had made a outside bar with a low confidence breakout. It looked below the previous week low 10350 and failed to accept below previous week low on EOD basis.
Nifty found short term resistance around 10500 zone and currently in the phase of short term correction. Trading sentiment and profile sentiment both turned to negative mode which brings more downside pressure for nifty in the very near term. On the downside 10350 and 10248 are the two major focus levels to watch in the very short term.
Nifty Future is trading very close to the all time high with mixed trading sentiments from market profile and indicator which could eventually lead into a sideways to uptrend phenomenon. Market internals are increasingly holding positive and put writers are aggressively killing the option premium at 9800PE, 9900PE, 10000PE, 10100PE. Diwali’s emotional trading is overcome by the Monday’s price action.
Inventory adjustment occurs especially when the market participants goes too long or too short. Short term Inventory Adjustment will be realized in the market either in the form of short covering or long liquidation breaks. Understanding the Long Term, Short Term, Day timeframe inventory conditions will give the true edge from both the trader/investor perspective.
Nifty Futures had done a inventory adjustment in a steep slope on last Wednesday trading. It is more of short sellers day where an emotional short selling is witnessed in the second half of the session. Indicator sentiment remains positive for the 7th day. Nifty Futures on the Daily chart is trading above 50 day moving average 9960.
Nifty managed to find support around 9700 zone and indicator sentiment turned positive on last friday evening. However profile sentiment manages to be negative as long as the price stays below 9814. Price accepting above 9814 could bring short some bullish bias back into the markets until then a sideways action between 9700-9814 is expected.
On Fridays trading session price opened lower though the trading sentiment on Fridays trading session is positive price maintained to close below thursdays pullback low reference. Value formed lower to overlapping and trading sentiment turned to negative despite one timeframing higher for 5 consecutive trading sessions on Daily timeframe.
Volume profile is a key study when comes to understanding the auction trading process. Volume Profiles will show you exactly how much volume, as well as relative volume, occurred at each price as well as the exact number of contracts for the entire session. It is a visualization tool to understand the high activity zone and low activity zone.
On Mondays trading session price is able to find a new higher equilibrium compare to the Fridays session as value is created higher and market sentiment too revived to positive mode despite Fridays negative close. Entire June trading session is so far in a compressed 100 point trading range between 9600-9700.