Gold had done a short term trend reversal from the recent swing low of 1251. Trading Sentiment holds positive on both daily and weekly timeframe. Current surge towards 1280 reference brings a possibility of test towards the 1295-1300 band where gold got resisted twice in the same reference.
Just thought of posting quick update on Gold Medium term trend. Price structure of the Gold Weekly Charts are moving in a sideways bearish trend since mid of 2013. Longer term bearish momentum got faded out completely. In financial markets such fading moment mostly happens near the end of the trend(bearish/bullish). And the weekly outside bar on the Gold charts due to Fridays fierce price moment indicates bullishness likely to resume in Gold.
After much waiting and anticipation, finance ministry has recently released a discussion paper, which is mainly proposed on the available gold monetization scheme. Moreover, finance minister has even promised to get acquainted with the available budget speech. Estimating the gold holding among so of the Indian households is now getting at none other than 20,000 tons, and the finance minister is likely to introduce a perfect gold monetization scheme.
Now gold is trading around $1211 & as we can see on charts gold following a upward trade line & reaching to the major resistance zone from $1224-1245. While looking at the big time frame gold still looking bearish & this move seems like 3 corrective move after completing the 5 wave downside elliott wave pattern.
Now gold showing recovery from previous bottom level & also broken from a shot term descending channel as shown in picture. However this breakout is not supported well in terms of volume & that force us to stay concern about this upside rally. The strength of this rally will be tested on $1205 once.
Recently, Indian govt announced a particular scheme in their budget notes which took a lot of attention, especially gold merchants and speculators. With gold prices tumbling since last couple of years, the new scheme-if it works, would not only increase the supply of precious metal at domestic level, in-turn cuts our international gold imports which further depresses the price at global scale.
Here is a simple example from Mr Jayant Manglik (Religare Online) explaining how the impact of Change in Comex Gold Price impact MCX Gold (if USDINR rates are assumed to be constant. He also discuss how USDINR movement affects MCX Gold rates keeping Comex Gold rates as constant. Useful video must for the begineers to understand the dynamics of the commodity market.
Out with the old: Super Commodities such as Gold, Silver,Oil etc are in a so-called secular bear market that may stretch for years.Remember the commodities supercycle, that seemingly endless 2000s commodities boom? It drove oil, gold, copper and other commodities to record levels may be moving out of order
Now gold is trading around $1184 & we can see on charts, friday gold rally more than 3% & provided a closing above $1182-1172 resistance which where able to stop gold momentum many times. Technically after breaking $1180 mark gold made a low of $1131 while unable to close below $1138 mark which represent the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level.