EURUSD on the monthly timeframe trading in a larger balance between 1.0482 and 1.145 (rough estimate) since the start of 2015. Its been more than 2 years and EURUSD is trading is the tighter range on the larger timeframe. On the lower side 1.048 offers a longterm support which is also the bottom of the balance. Highly compressed trading activity is seen in the last 4-5 trading months
The EUR/USD consolidated its recent gains following a surge in the exchange rate in the wake of the ECB meeting. While the central bank mostly stuck to the script, keeping rates unchanged and QE in place, it did strike a more neutral stance but this will come slowly over a long period of time. Draghi, shrugged off the recent increases in inflation as transitory, and believes there is a need for the current stimulus to remain intact.
EURUSD is consolidating on the monthly and Weekly timeframe and negative sentiment prevail there. However on the Daily charts trading sentiment turned positive. Since the start of FEB 2017 EURUSD is in declining mode and so far twice EURUSD rallied from the intermediate lows formed around 1.0500 levels. It could act as a potential support zone in the upcoming day.
Since 2014, the Dollar has increased by 25% against a basket of major currencies. After President Trump’s election, the value of the greenback has risen by about 3%, but his recent comment questioning the wisdom of maintaining a “strong Dollar” seems to have put pressure on the USD, which so far has been in the red in 2017.
Pound is trading around 1.2494 and currently monthly sentimental RSI turned positive and likely to continue positive in the long term. It had almost taken 7 months for the sentiment to change positive since BR Exit. The Transition of sentiment from Red to Yellow color indicates positive trend reversal and the trend change is likely to be long term.
Though Governments demonetization is a welcoming move to remove black money, fake currency, corruption and terror financing from the system, it is a bit early to make any accurate predictions on the full impact of government’s attempt to demonetize Rs.500 and Rs.1,000 currency notes . Demonetization is good for the medium to long term economy, however it will adversely impact India’s economic growth in the short run.
Some Elliott wave forex traders do watch the news — but for different reasons By Elliott Wave International Last Friday, EURUSD rallied strongly. Said Reuters: “The U.S. dollar tumbled against a basket of major currencies…on U.S. political uncertainty after the FBI said it would review more emails related to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s private […]
Any trader of foreign currencies likely understands the influence that both local and international politics have on currency values. Successful online forex trading involves following the changes and trends that are taking place across the globe, and making the right trades at opportune moments to capitalize on changes of currency values.
Before stepping into Monday its better prepare yourself to face the music of volatility in the markets. Last Friday the outcome of BRExit vote on leaving the European union had made a huge shock wave across major financial markets including Stocks, commodities and currency markets. And Fridays price action had done a major structural damage on the time series charts.
Interesting Divergence behavior in USDINR Daily charts while trying to use Fisher Transform indicator by Ehlers. Almost every divergence as shown in the above charts extended any where between 28-34 days. Divergence generally occurs when an indicator and the price of an asset are heading in opposite directions. Current positive divergence is running on for last 32 days i.e USDINR rate is slowing and moving down however fisher indicator is turning upwards.
Recently SEBI has approved stock exchanges to introduce cross currency derivative contracts (futures and exchange traded options) in multiple cross currency contracts. Approved Cross Currency pairs involves EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY futures and the introduction of exchange traded option pairs EUR-INR, GBP-INR and JPY-INR currency pairs.