Here are the 4 visible signs (Volatility Sentiment, Magazine Indicator, COT Percentile , Gold Oil Ratio) we look into it to predict the possible bottom in Crude.
Now crude is trading around $48.94 & as we can see on charts, its approaching to the broken tradeline of last symmetrical triangle pattern. This recovery seems to be a corrective one due to less volume & weak candlestick structure. However small timeframe charts showing some positivity but day & weekly charts are still bearish.
On monday international crude breaks more than 5% and settled around $50 level which is the lowest settlement since April 2009. Crude tumbled heavily after data showed Russian oil output at post-Soviet era highs averaging 10.58 million barrels per day and Iraq plans to expand crude exports to 3.3 million barrels a day this month.
Gold fail to get stability above $1172 mark & fall back. However the move was not well supported by volume due to bank holiday in US market. Coming back to technical an triangle pattern ranging from $1172 – $1153 will declare the direction with break out.
Gold consolidating after sharp fall & trying to retest the broken support level turned into resistance. WE may witness more weakness as far as $1182 area remains as EOD resistance.
Now crude is trading around $81.30 & we can see on charts crude unable to trade able broken support area of $84.20 while a formed a very bearish candlestick pattern just below the resistance. The minor ascending channel broken by crude suggest that consolidation done here & we may witness more downfall in coming trading sessions. Technically crude may find support at $79-77 area but before the hidden negative divergence (LH/HH) will do its job.
Crude continue trading in tight range after finding a support just under $90 mark as mention in our last article. Last few days trading showing a slow down in downside movement while the construction of positive candlestick pattern with continue positive divergence suggesting a bounce ahead. A lower trend line support of minor descending channel still favor shot covering.
Now crude is trading around $92.40 & the bounce $90 mark is well supported by many factors like 261.8% February retracement. , a lower trendline of descending channel as well as a very strong positive divergence. All this together providing a buying opportunity at current level.
Now crude is trading around $103.60 & as we can see on charts, crude once again reaching to the resistance zone ,from where we already witness 2 reversal earlier. The candlestick pattern producing a negative candlestick pattern which suggest for a reversal ahead. At the same time indicators showing over bought situation.
Now crude is trading at $93.35 & as we can see on charts crude is sustaining above the lower trade line of long term ascending channel which made top $112 in last run. This tradeline becoming more powerful when it came in combination of lower trade line of minor descending channel (shown in chart) & a parallel support from the bottom made on in last 3 times. At the same time RSI continue trading with a major possibility of positive divergence.
Now crude is trading around $97.80 & as we can see on charts, crude was able to manage above 61.8% feb correction level of last ascending wave.This area also supported by the parallel support area of june 2013 as well as the oversold indicators were looking for some relief.
Crude oil’s rally continued last week and reached as high as 109.32 dollar/barrel. Crude given a long bull run in new financial year. Now its time to review at reversal possibilities.