Nifty Technicals – Will it Solve the Mystery???

Last Friday’s unusal celebration makes me think about the contrarian side and this time very badly about

indian stock markets.Also operators targetted the reliance badly for the past three days. They treated

reliance very badly and on friday immediately reliance becomes their pet. Looks more unusal. I personally

feel that its a big game of operators to squeeze the shorts of small traders.

Where this market is going to move? It is quit difficult for me to come up a decision. So I tried

analysing all the hourly,daily,weekly charts of nifty to come up with my conclusion.

Last Friday close in nifty above 4360 made a breakout signal in Nifty hourly charts but its rsi level is not

imressive because its RSI level spikes immediately from 20% to 60% which shows only a small uptrend is

left as per nifty hourly charts. And 200MA(hourly) EMA is currently at 4385. So as per hourly charts strong

resistance in 4385-4395 zone. And as per this chart maximum upside is possible upto 4440 for this week.

So I try to figure out Nifty Daily Charts. Looking at daily nifty charts there is not conclusive buy or sell signals.

Slow Stocastic look more confused with huge number of crossover indicating a confustion. And MACD is just

crossing zero indicating a sell signal as per daily charts. And Also Nifty Closed Just above my favorite indicator

20 day EMA(4356). So if any of the day left closed below 4356 will definitely indicate a strong reversal. And as per

Daily Nifty Charts resistance are coming nearly 4400.

Atlast coming to Weekly Charts indicating only Strong Reversal.Slow Stocastic is showing strong reversal

and also Nifty weekly charts closed below 20EMA for the second week continiouly. And weekly resistance

coming near 4431- 4447 range And also i try to analyse some its constituents like Reliance, L&T, ICICI, SBI,

HDFC, Reliance Communication, BHEL. Almost all the stocks are below 20 EMA except BHEL. And BHEL

is currently in the mood to fill the gap formed near 1600 range. So overall Nifty Weekly Charts are indicating

a Strong Reversak Pattern with falling Stocastic Indicator.

So by concluding all these things for the current week we are limited upto 4440 range in upside with

sequence of resistance at 4385,4400,4440. If we are able to sustain above that then we can see 4600-4800 levels

in coming months And Now this time iam gonna believe oStrongly on Nifty Weekly Charts rather than try beliving

on Daily and Hourly Charts. Just taking some longer duration charts.

even lower targets are possible.If you note currency markets Yen appreciates from 110.50 to 108.50 and rupee depriciate from 42 to 44. During june same thing happens and by that time crude Shots up heavily.In short rupee should not depriciate and Yen should not aprreciate But unfortunately both happens at the same time.And Market will explaining the effect.To know what happened last June try visit
Yen – Rupee Currency Mismatch and Selling in Indian Market

upmove about 3% close on last friday looks quite unusual.

Let See How this twist ends.
Happy Trading!!!

Regards,

Rajandran R

Auhor – Marketcalls