Nymex Crude Oil (30.4.2014) traded higher in for last 5 weeks on increasing geographical tension. However technical were not convinced.
Now Crude is trading around $100.50 & as we can see on charts crude finally manage to broke below the support trend line holding from start of 2014. The downside breakout came with good technical indicators like the candlestick pattern is turning negative, RSI moved below 50 mark. However 200 SMA is still providing some support.
On fundamental side, US sanction on russia was not enough to provide any spike in crude as well as crude oil inventories are on highest level since 80’s. Libya oil production also started meanwhile.
Based on above studies, we will prefer to sell crude for possible targets at $99.10 & then $98.10 while a day close above $102.30 will delay the forecast.