Nifty Futures opened within the range on Monday and managed to break Fridays low in the first 30min of trading and tested 10300 levels post the mid noon. Post testing below 10300 managed to recovered towards the Developing Point of Control. Trading sentiment is negative and value formed lower for the day relative to Fridays trading session. PSU Bank scam sentiment weigh the day, puts more downside pressure on the price.
Just 4 more trading days left for the February expiry series to come to an end. So far this expiry is brutal to the small cap and midcap investors. Lots of dumb longs got flushed out of the system and some more still pending to get flushed out. Media Channels are fear mongering on banking scams. If your mind is biased it is better to cleanse with top down approach.
Nifty Energy is in a one way street since the start of Sep 2015. Almost 100% return in the Energy index since then. Since mid of Oct 2017 Energy index is consolidating in a broader band of 13750-14670 range. Momentum index is on a continuous decline in the last 4 months indicating lack of interest from the market participants. Lack of momentum inidcates long term serious money is missing in the last 4 months.
Yet another high volatile day in the market with two sided auctions. Price opened above previous day spike and went testing the Thursdays failed auction reference level 10586. Later on price traded in a compressed ontimeframe against the IB direction more of day timeframe players participation with stops built at day high.
Nifty Futures opened within the range on Wednesday Morning followed a breakout towards previous day high in the first 30min of trading. Post breakout, compressed two way auction continued throughout mid of the day, filled with intraday choppiness. Trading confidence was relatively less. Value remains higher throughout the day though price plunged in the last 30 minute of trading and spike rules applies on thursday trading session. Day also ended with Failed Auction at day high – 10587
Nifty Futures opened gap up on Monday Morning followed by two way auction continued throughout the day filled with intraday choppiness. Trading confidence was relatively less as the opening auction turned out to be open auction outside the range. Value remains higher throughout the day price manage to sustain above 10480 levels.
Last Friday, Indian bourses NSE, BSE & MSE decided to cancel licensing agreements for providing indices and securities-related data feed services to any foreign exchange or trading platform. It have taken a joint initiative to stop trading of derivative contracts based on Indian indices on overseas exchanges. It is a move to stop migrating liquidity to overseas exchanges.
It is always good to start a week with top down analysis to gauge the overall market participation mood. On the monthly bar chart (Long Term Auction) Nifty Futures is balancing. Last week attempt to breakout of previous month low 10436.5 failed. On the weekly bar (Intermediate Term Auction) Nifty futures is clearly down and also trading below the major psychological reference 10500 levels. On the Daily bar (Short term Auction) Nifty futures is trending down with in a volatile environment.
Nifty PSU Bank Index is currently trading around 3424 broken the low made on Bank Recapitalization announcement. Finance minister Arun Jaitley had in October announced an unprecedented Rs2.11 trillion PSU bank recapitalisation plan. On that day Nifty PSU Bank index soared 24% intraday led by gains in State Bank of India (SBI), Punjab National Bank (PNB), Bank of Baroda, Bank of India and Union Bank.
Investor faith in small caps has been shaken as the SmallCap Indices are in absolute panic last Friday. Index closes 6.06% down on last Friday and down by 10.63% on the Union Budget 2018 week. The fear in Smallcap starts during the mid of Jan 2018 and the warnings by one of India’s richest bankers, Uday Kotak, of building of a stock market bubble.
Nifty Metal sector is showing medium term weakness as the overall momentum slows down as it has strong correlation with Global Metal prices. Base metals slid on Tuesday with copper and nickel hitting multi-week lows.
The context had nothing much changed from the last write up except the market moved from a 100 point range to 200 point range.Volatility is much improved for this week. Nifty Futures attempted a fresh all time high and closed higher with euphoric global market optimism.