Nifty futures had done a interesting activity on the daily charts. If you observed the historical daily charts of nifty futures you would have noticed that in the last three months 8580 zone is whipsawed multiple times (12 trading sessions in last 4 months) and whenever price approaches 8580 price made a pullback and buying behavior happens.
Since 2012 Nifty Auto Sector had delivered phenomenal returns of more than 300x times Return on Investment. That shows the significant presence of longer time-frame participants who believed in the growth story and economics of the auto sector. Also sheer Outperformance when compared with benchmark index Nifty 50.
The RBI cut benchmark rates by 25 basis points (bps) on 4 October, bringing down the repo rate from 6.5% to 6.25% since then there is a significant underperformance in banknifty futures as compared with nifty futures. And this underperformance in banknifty futures is expected to continue in the upcoming trading sessions as every minor rallies in banknifty gets rejected at higher level and sellers stepping
Interesting Development happening in Bank Nifty Futures on the daily charts. Bank Nifty Futures had broken the 15 days of consolidation movement with a strong breakout and also close below the bottom of the consolidation zone 18760. This post is to analyze whether the breakout is really strong or not. Market Sentiment is really negative and the last fridays sentiment continued on monday as well.
Nifty Futures opened gap down and made a island reversal pattern on Monday. Though it is a classical bearish pattern,markets generally reacts against the classical technique most of the time. Trading Sentiment is negative and after the Monday’s impact on markets expectation on the psychological figure 9000 reduced.
If you frequently track gap in Nifty (Spot) you would understand that there are so far 10 unfaded gaps since the start of March 2016. Current leg of rally is almost 8 months old and during this leg we had hardly made only 2 gap downs, 19 gap ups and 10 unfaded gap ups. which indicates that we are in a emotional buyers market.
In the last week we had seen aggressive short covering from shorter timeframe sellers followed by lack of momentum post the breakout of 8800 zone. In the last three days again we started making fresh three day consolidation in the range 8800-8860 zone indicating that trend is getting tired and whomever trading this zone is most likely dominated by shorter timeframe buyers
One of the toughest part in trading is you see a trend breakout and not try to trade against it. However most of traders love to short a strong trend for smaller gains and the short sellers keep on piling up every up every upmove. When you are seeing a breakout on your charts one of the questions you have to ask yourself is “is this breakout really strong on weak breakout” and that understanding make you to ride the trend. Else we will be the weaker prey and ends providing liquidity to the strong players!
Sometime back during Apr 2016 we have curiosity about pharma sector bottoming out. By that time sector has strong negative sentiment while hitting the panic bottom from there is had made a 2016 high of 12011. We believe that longer timeframe players are still interested in this sector though the presence of intermediate buyers.
Nifty Futures currently trading in a broader consolidation range for the entire august month and the September series contract is still trading in the broader range between 8575-8800. Overall Market mood is not so far benefiting the trend followers. Choppiness is again expected on Monday. However price trading and maintaining above 8600 indicates a possible continuation of the range 8575-8800.
Current Uptrend is almost 7 months old and you can see from the chart though market had done almost 1800+ points since Feb 2016 majority of the times markets are in consolidation phase as indicates. Too much consolidation indicates that trend is aging. Aging doesn’t mean that we are going to see a reversal. One need to understand that what phase of market we are in to take relevant trading decisions.