The Federal Reserve announced last month that they would start to reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, thereby starting the process we call Quantitative Tightening (QT). As expected, they are aiming to do it gently and quietly, by not reinvesting bonds as they mature, starting with sums of around $6 billion of Treasuries and $4 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). The scale of non-reinvestment will gradually increase. Once in full swing, the Fed’s balance sheet could reduce by up to $150 billion each quarter.
Here at Ellliotwave International we studied investors behavior for nearly 40 years. A huge benefit of all that study is being able to study today’s stock market to the major market market tops and bottoms of the past. This Mutual Fund Vs Money Market Ratio ( 30 years of historical chart) shows extreme sentimental indications which shows how riskier the investments in today’s stock market compared to 2000 and 2008.
In 2013, our chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy co-authored an invaluable resource titled “Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading” in which he explained how combining Elliott analysis with technical methods enables traders to identify price action moving with, and against the larger trend.
The market itself provides its own clues about its future price action. One such clue is found in higher-beta small cap stocks vs. lower-beta blue chips. Get our take.
Stock picking is losing favor. On the other hand, passive investing is growing in popularity. This fits with the stock market’s Elliott wave pattern. The mania is not over, but the end might be closer than many investors realize
The Elliott wave model often indicates a stock market outlook that’s at odds with the sentiment of the crowd. But, that’s okay. The crowd is usually wrong at major market turns. For example, two years ago on May 9, 2015, the bull market was six years old and the third longest in history. A few days earlier, CNN Money said: As the bull market gets longer and longer, investors are getting jittery.
As Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle, says: The Wave Principle is the best forecasting tool in existence. [It] imparts an immense amount of knowledge about the market’s position … and its probable ensuing path.
Announcing Trader Education Week — A FREE trading event that will teach you how to spot trading opportunities in your charts. Spend March 20-24 getting free trading lessons that you can apply to your trading immediately — from one of the world’s foremost market technicians, Jeffrey Kennedy. Register now for your FREE week of trading lessons and get immediate access to 2 introductory resources.
There’s an old saying on Wall Street that goes “buy low and sell high.” It’s usually said in jest because it’s a feat that’s much easier said than done. History shows that most investors pile into bull markets just as they are about to end, and they do the opposite in bear markets: sell right near the bottom, when the fear is at its highest.
Do you see a pattern you recognize in this chart of Reynolds American (RAI)? The Wave Principle separates price action into two categories: motive and corrective, and this price chart has a clear example of one category.
According to the news-focused analysts, commodities as a whole had resolved to quit their bear habits in 2011, and soar: “The bull market in commodities is likely to continue for some time.” (Dec. 8, 2010, Wall Street Journal). “The crash of 2008 in commodities was a mere blip… The rally in prices shows no signs of slowing.” (March 9, 2010, National Post)
In the closing days of November, the Daily Sentiment Index registered a ten-day average of just 9.1% gold bulls. That was only the third time in the sentiment gauge’s 30-year history that such a low bullish reading was recorded.