Bullish sentiment among silver traders recently fell to 8 percent, the lowest reading since mid-2015. So, sentiment is in the right place for the next big leg in the price pattern.
MCX Gold surges to a high of Rs31326/Kg when Mr.Donald trump was leading the election results on 9th Nov 2016. Around 10.40p.m gold topped out and from there post the election announcement MCX Gold dropped to a low of Rs29269/Kg on last Friday (Nov 11,2016). The dollar rose to its strongest level since February. Bonds continued to get pounded, with losses exceeding $1 trillion this week.
It is almost a “V”-Shaped recovery from the May 2015 crash in Zinc Futures. Post the mid of July 2016, momentum in zinc had came down drastically. When the momentum declines buyers started getting frustrated with their long holdings. And when market conditions are not favoring those buyers naturally they turn to sell their contracts and there by triggering shorter term selling.
Is the long term trend in Nickel Started? To answer this question we can start with monthly nickel charts with predict cycle indicator. You can notice from the MCX nickel monthly charts that Predict cycle had turned positive – we are possibly in the long term uptrend. After 8 months of consolidation on the larger timeframe Nickel is currently trading above 8 month high.
MCX Copper peaked out during 28th Aug 2013 made a high around Rs513.05/Kg since then MCX Copper is in long term downtrend and currently trading around Rs313.6/kg. It is believed that struggling Chinese economy is the reason for the bear market in copper prices. To be noted China is the largest copper consumer (roughly 40 per cent of global copper consumption).
MCX Crude tested the bottom 11th Feb 2016 Rs1805/Barrel since then it is in tremendous uptrend and currently trading around Oct 2015 high where crude is expected to consolidate with minor sell-off. One cannot expect any immediate uptrend in the coming days. Sell off in global commodities like Gold and Silver will weigh on other commodities as well.
Since February 2016, Gold is trading in sideways mode between 28,000 – 30,000 per kg on the broader scale. Interestingly China (Shanghai Gold Exchange) last week launched its own yuan denominated Gold contracts which will become the reference price for gold in the country. The benchmark price for a 1 kg contract was set at 256.92 yuan/gram on Tuesday at the launch of the benchmark contract.
COT refers to Commitment of Traders. The Commitments of Traders (CoT) is a weekly report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CoT report outlines how different types of traders are positioned in the futures markets. COT reports are delayed reports(release on every friday) about the participant wise open interest data and provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets.
Just thought of posting quick update on Gold Medium term trend. Price structure of the Gold Weekly Charts are moving in a sideways bearish trend since mid of 2013. Longer term bearish momentum got faded out completely. In financial markets such fading moment mostly happens near the end of the trend(bearish/bullish). And the weekly outside bar on the Gold charts due to Fridays fierce price moment indicates bullishness likely to resume in Gold.